Countermeasures to Population Decline and Local Extinction

Lee, Yonghwan.

Secretary General of The Hansun Foundation

 Choi, Youngho.

 Policy Committee Member of The Hansun Foundation

We are currently facing two major challenges: a declining population due to low birth rates and an aging society as well as a crisis of regional extinction caused by the concentration of population and resources in the capital areas. These challenges are interlinked and exacerbate each other in a vicious cycle.

  - Factors and Responses to Population Structure Changes

Korea's population structure is aging at a faster speed than other OECD countries. In 2018, the life expectancy of Koreans was 82.7 years, which is 1.9 years higher than the OECD average. However, the number of newborns is rapidly decreasing. In 2022, the fertility rate fell to 0.78. The index of Seoul is only 0.59. The OECD average total fertility rate is 1.59 (as of 2020). Overall, it is half of the OECD and Seoul is about one-third. Korea has been in last place among OECD member countries with a fertility rate below 1.0 for 16 consecutive years.

The increasing proportion of the elderly population is just as important as the impact of low birth rates. If current trends continue, it is expected that the proportion of elderly people in the total population will exceed 20% by 2025, entering a super-aged society.

 The population decline due to low birth rates, aging population, and population concentration in the capital area act as factors that promote the disappearance of rural areas. At this point, the central government and local governments have to work closely together to prepare measures and implement them thoroughly.

First of all, we need to solve the urgent labor shortage problem. The decrease in the working-age population can be addressed to some extent by actively utilizing AI-robot convergence technology. The shortage of defense personnel can also be addressed to some extent. In the consumption sector, purchasing power is important and this can be achieved through economic growth that creates good jobs and income. In addition, incentives to increase the population are also important. We have to improve the immigration policy. The central and local governments need to re-examine their population policies and establish comprehensive measures for the future, including immigration policies. Improving the immigration policy is a challenging task in a culture that values blood ties. However, these days, the concept of family is changing from a traditional blood-centered approach to one that considers language and residence simultaneously. Currently, we live in the era where even if they are not related by blood, people living together are considered as family.

- Policy tasks to address the disappearance of local communities

The issue of local extinction has been a long-standing challenge. Although the central and local governments in Korea have made efforts together to prevent local extinction, the results have been inadequate. Now, the local government should take the lead rather than relying on the central government. In the last February, the central government selected 57 tasks in six areas to transfer its authority to local governments. The era of local autonomy means local governments establishing and implementing development strategies based on autonomy and self-responsibility, collaborating with the central government, and achieving regional development through solidarity with other local governments. The central government should encourage openness and competition by supporting innovative local governments. First local governments should review what kind of local cities they will make and then present blueprints and create an environment that encourages innovation.

They should showcase the uniqueness of their region, continue to expand infrastructure, and provide administrative services. The MZ generation refers to traditional rural areas as “Small City”. This means that urban convenience is necessary for rural areas. For realizing this, they must attract companies that create workplaces along with schools, hospitals, and commercial facilities.

To attract businesses, local universities must be able to provide a labor force that meets the demand of companies, along with incentives such as taxes, finance, cheap land, and so on. Moreover, they have to create a digital environment that responds to changing times. This issue cannot be solved by local universities alone, so local governments must take the lead and the central government must do its best to support them. In addition, it is necessary to consider and implement ways to utilize idle labor force such as women, the elderly, and the disabled living in local areas, along with strengthening vocational education that responds to the digital era, expanding job-sharing and part-time work opportunities. Local governments must take the lead in building a system of regional development that can boost employment, entrepreneurship, work-life balance as well as labor force training.

- Measurement in harmony with the trend of the times

Living in pleasant local areas aligns with the desire of modern times to pursue a quality of life. In the past, people preferred living close to their workplace. Nowadays, however, they want to work in the city during the weekdays and spend their weekends with their families in regions with fresh air and clear water. Local governments should take advantage of the trend of dual life and the work-from-home style that people have become accustomed to due to the COVID-19 pandemic. It is not necessary to attract only a sedentary population. It would be good to design policies for increasing the living population. If people feel relaxed and satisfied with their lives in the regions, the population can increase. People will also come if they can receive high-quality education and medical services in the region. It may not be possible to achieve education, medical, cultural, and welfare policies all at once. After specializing in one area and then the others can be pursued step by step. If local governments properly cope with this trend, it can also serve as an opportunity to disperse the population from metropolitan areas. It would be even better if they make their regions attractive enough for foreigners to visit. The establishment of the Korean Immigration and Border Control Agency, which is scheduled to be established in the first half of this year, can also contribute to population growth. In order to achieve this, both the central and local governments need to eliminate regulations that hinder the attraction of foreign talent and investment and reduce taxes higher than the world average. Local universities should also open Korean language courses to attract young people from overseas, including K-pop fans.

If the efforts mentioned above bear fruits and earn the trust of people, local policies can become a driving force for population growth. First of all, we must recognize that the concentration of the population in the capital area, low birth rates, and the disappearance of local areas are interlinked and perpetuate a vicious cycle. Politicians and social leaders need to engage in productive discussions and work together to develop solutions, convincing the public. The solutions must be implemented as soon as possible.