The Future of the Korean Peninsula: Unification or Perpetual Division

Leadership changes in states both within and outside of the Korean Peninsula were all completed in 2012. Of all the states, North Korea was the first to complete the leadership transition. With new leaders in Russia, the U.S., China, Japan, and South Korea, it is not an exaggeration to say that the future of the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia will be determined largely by how these new leaders perceive the changing situations of North Korea, and by what policy goal and strategy they adopt in response.

The next 4-5 years could be a historical turning point not only to the fate of the Korean Peninsula in particular, but also to that of Northeast Asian region as a whole. Given North Korea's dire economic conditions, the regime may be compelled to make a critical choice for the sake of survival. Pyongyang will face a choice between two options. One is an open-door policy, which may create some regime instability, but definitely gain a huge and wholehearted support from South Korea and warm cooperation from the international community. The other is a continued self-reliance and isolation policy through nuclear and missile development. Either choice could trigger a fundamental change to the country's future. Opening North Korea could pave the way for a gradual unification of the two Koreas, while continuing adherence to self-imposed isolation could force its implosion or external interventions.

South Korea must sufficiently prepare itself for either scenario through close consultation with the U.S., China, Japan, and Russia. More coordinated efforts among these neighboring countries with South Korea in dealing with either scenario would enhance the prospect of Korean unification as well as the peace and prosperity of Northeast Asian region. The future of the Northeast Asia depends critically on what will happen in the Korean Peninsula in the next 4-5 years. If North Korea could proceed towards opening, thereby becoming 'a normal state', then the eventual outcome will be a unified Korea and substantially enhanced peace in the Northeast Asia. If North Korea fails to move to a right direction, the resultant perpetual division of the Peninsula would be a source of conflict and instability for the Northest Asian region, leading to 'New Cold War' against the interests of all neighboring nations.

To secure peace and affluence in the Northeast Asia, the U.S., China, Japan, and Russia should work together collectively and develope a well-coordinated policy package in dealing with the forthcoming changes which will occur in North Korea within the next 4-5 years.


Firstly, they will need to effectively assist North Korea to become a "normal state' with serious commitment to the well-being of its own people, respecting the duties and responsibilities embedded in the international treaties that have been agreed. If North Korea normalizes its behavior and policies, it would improve the potential for Korea's unification and peace and prosperity of Northeast Asia. Thus, the newly elected leaders and new governments in the Northeast Asia will have to find ways to augment their cooperation and coordination with each other towards this end.


Secondly, in the course of North Korea's normalcy, unintended consequences could arise. In such case, the neighboring states have to manage them with a blueprint and a road map that are multilaterally designed in advance. An advanced coordination is the most ascertained way to lead the situation toward unification and peaceful Northeast Asia. However, uncoordinated intervention or poorly organized cooperation could result in a political and military disaster and the end state of such outcome is not predictable. We should collectively find ways to avoid such consequences beforehand.


The following questions will be the main focus of the discussion at the conference:

(1) To assist North Korea to choose an open-door policy and become a 'normal state' - what kind of policy coordination should the U.S., China, Japan, Russia, and South Korea pursue and how to initiate it?

(2) To discourage North Korea from adhering a self-imposed isolation policy - what kind of strategy coordination should the U.S., China, Japan, Russia, and South Korea develop and what role should each country play?

(3) If unintended changes occur due to the self-imposed isolation policy, what strategic approaches should South Korea and the U.S., China, Japan, and Russia take together to effectively handle these sudden changes which might happen in the form of implosion or explosion? To avoid a political and military disaster from such an events, what kind of a contingency plan should be collectively prepared by the neighboring states?

(4) What is the best way to make the neighboring states work together in producing public goods for the region, such as a unified independent Korea and a following peace and prosperity in the Northeast Asia? Who should start it and how?